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WINNIPEG (CP) - An extensive international study on the effects of climate
change in the Arctic has reached some startling conclusions on issues
ranging from how fast polar ice is melting to the impact on Inuit
communities.
About 120 scientists from 11 countries involved in the Canadian-led research
project, which started in 2002, are meeting in Winnipeg this week to present
and discuss their findings.
One of the most surprising for David Barber, a sea ice specialist at the
University of Manitoba, was the fact polar ice is melting at a rate of about
74,000 square kilometres each year - an area about the size of Lake Superior
- and has been for the last 30 years.
"This is a very significant result, and it's not some sort of trend that's
going to shift back the other way," Barber said Tuesday.
Barber added there is increasing concern in the scientific community that
there are factors actually speeding up the melt, but he cautions it's too
late to reverse the trend.
"The time to act actually was a few decades ago," he said.
"We're not going to be able to shift the economies of the planet to get off
this fossil fuel addiction in a week, a year or a decade. But we have to
start the process now to have some stability for future generations."
Louis Fortier, a researcher with Universite Laval in Quebec City who led the
project, agreed the focus in Canada and internationally needs to be on
coping with the reality of global warming and minimizing the damage.
"If we wanted to really change things to avoid the bulk of the impacts of
climate change, we would have to totally change our way of life tomorrow,"
said Fortier.
"We'd have to stop using our cars and reduce (greenhouse gas) emissions by
60 to 80 per cent, which would obviously create major problems."
Climate change models have long predicted global warming would be felt
first, and strongest, in the extreme north and south. This research is
proving that claim to be bang on, said Barber.
The crux of the research program - known as the Canadian Arctic Shelf
Exchange Study - was a year-long expedition aboard the Canadian research
icebreaker CCGS Amundsen, which was deliberately frozen in an ice floe in
Franklin Bay in December 2003.
Scientists sampled the winter and spring conditions in the Western Arctic,
then continued sampling in the open waters of the MacKenzie Shelf until
August 2004.
Further research will be done in the coming years to look at the
socio-economic, cultural and geopolitical impact of climate change.
But the Inuit, who spend much of the year living off the sea and ice, are
already feeling the negative effects, said Fortier.
The ice is not as safe for travel, houses are being washed away as
shorelines erode by as much as six metres a year, and food sources such as
caribou and seals could eventually disappear and be replaced by other
species from other areas within the next century, he said.
Great international hope rests on the Kyoto Protocol to help slow the pace
of global warming, although the recent election of Prime Minister Stephen
Harper has thrown the extent of Canada's participation in doubt.
Fortier calls Kyoto a small step, "like a toddler starting to walk," but
said North America and Europe will have to do as much as 20 times more than
what is outlined in the deal to really solve the problem.
Further delaying progress is the use of heavier polluting substances such as
yellow coal by emerging economies such as China and India.
"This will be extremely polluting but there's nothing we can tell them that
will stop that," said Fortier.
"It's difficult for us to say, 'We got rich polluting the atmosphere,
creating the greenhouse gases problem, but you can not do it yourself.' "
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